Global dating revolution
With this month’s RSS (Remote Sensing Systems satellite) temperature record, the Pause beats last month’s record and now stands at 18 years 9 months.' As the faithful gather around their capering shamans in Paris for the New Superstition’s annual festival of worship, the Pause lengthens yet again.
One-third of Man’s entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution has occurred since February 1997.
The trend lines measure what has occurred: they do not predict what will occur.
The Pause – politically useful though it may be to all who wish that the “official” scientific community would remember its duty of skepticism – is far less important than the growing discrepancy between the predictions of the general-circulation models and observed reality.
If the Pause lengthens just a little more, the rate of warming in the quarter-century since the IPCC’s in 1990 will fall below 1 C°/century equivalent. Near-term projections of warming at a rate equivalent to 2.8 [1.9, 4.2] K/century, made with “substantial confidence” in IPCC (1990), for the 309 months January 1990 to September 2015 (orange region and red trend line), vs.The graph of Roe’s model output shows that the initial expected response to a forcing is supposed to be an immediate and rapid warming.But, despite the very substantial forcings in the 18 years 9 months since February 1997, not a flicker of warming has resulted. At the Heartland and Philip Foster events in Paris, I shall reveal in detail the three serious errors that have led the models to over-predict warming so grossly.NOAA, in a very rare fit of honesty, admitted in its 2008 report that 15 years or more without global warming would demonstrate a discrepancy between prediction and observation.The reason for NOAA’s statement is that there is supposed to be a sharp and significant instantaneous response to a radiative forcing such as adding CO2 to the air.
Now, almost three years later, the Pause is almost three years longer.